Co-hosted by the Graduate School and the School of Political Science & International Relations of Tongji University, the Tongji Advanced Lecture for Graduate Students No.83 “Global Changes and China’s National Security” was held in Lecture Hall 101, Yifu Building, Siping Campus on May 9, 2019. Major General Tang Yongsheng, Vice President of the College of National Security of PLA National Defence University, was invited to give this high-level lecture, which was moderated by Tongji Distinguished Professor Men Honghua, Dean of School of Political Science & International Relations.

Prof. Tang focused on the relationship between global changes and China’s national security. Maintaining national security is the top priority for the development of socialism with Chinese characteristics, so it is essential to establish the status of national security in the global changes. Prof. Tang pointed out that the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century: multi-polarization, economic globalization, social informatization, and cultural diversification are deepening, the reforms of global governance and international order are accelerating, and the trend of peaceful development is irreversible; meanwhile, world instability and uncertainty are striking. All of these have posed many challenges and risks to international security.

Prof. Tang analyzed the profound changes unseen in a century from the following three aspects. (1) The evolution of international system is accelerating. The major changes in world power structure and the closer global ties have complicated inter-state relations more than ever. In addition to traditional elements including hegemony dominance, power politics, capital expansion, and geo-competition, there are also new elements like international links, non-state actors, global issues, and power diffusion; (2) There is a new round of strategic game among major powers, who are competing fiercely for the redistribution of power and interests; (3) China is entering a critical period of social transformation. Therefore, the national security is more complicated than at any time in history in terms of connotation and extension. Prof. Tang pointed out that China is facing a new, generally favorable national security situation, and its ability to maintain national security continues to increase. However, with the further development and profound changes of the socio-economy and the interplay of various contradictions and problems, China tends to face a growing number of predictable and unpredictable security risks. External risks mainly come from the containment of the West led by the US and the intensification of disputes over China’s sovereign rights and interests, while internal risks from the contradictions piled up as a result of social transformation. Prof. Tang warned three traps: the Thucydides Trap at the international system level, the Democratization Trap at the institutional level, and the Middle-Income Trap at the economic level. This is urging China to enhance strategic thinking, dialectical thinking and bottom-line thinking.

Prof. Tang used German historical experience and lessons to highlight the importance of strategic choice. Germany is a typical besieged country with a complex geographic environment. Bismarck secured 30 years of development through diplomatic maneuvers. Adopting the approach of a small Germany, the country maintained strategic stability with its neighbors. It exercised self-restraint, and woven a complex security network to avoid the risk of being encircled. Bismarck’s successors ended in failure because they failed not recognize the risks and understand and maintain his strategy. This shows that different strategic choices will lead a country to different destinies, so China’s strategic choices will become particularly vital amid global changes.

Prof. Tang comprehended China’s international security strategy amid changes through the following three relations. (1) China’s relations with the US: shaping the future of China-US relations. In recent years, the US has clearly considered China as a strategic competitor. In terms of military and security, it is stepping up the maintenance of a frontier presence, the long-term military relations with its allies and partners, and the development of a strong defense network. Prof. Tang believed that it is necessary for China to monitor the process of competition with the US, seize the strategic initiative in struggle, cooperation and engagement, and strengthen the strategic capability of check and balance, to maintain the strategic stability of China-US relations. (2) China’s relations with its neighbors: building a support for peripheral security. China’s foreign relations are most fundamentally supported by its surrounding areas. China should give full play to its geographical advantages as a core country in Asia, strengthen the influence of its development on the neighbors, uphold justice while pursuing interests, and develop constructive neighborly relations by economic, political, diplomatic and military means, to maintain security and prosperity across Asia and provide an important guarantee for national rejuvenation. (3) China’s relations with the world: actively expanding international influence. Prof. Tang indicated that when the international situation is changing drastically, China is given a broader space to expand its international influence. In a changing world, there will be more contradictions available, and China will be better positioned to handle the relations with the rest of the world. China is now closer to the goal of national rejuvenation than ever. At such a critical point, it must stay sober and patient to prevent any strategic mistakes; and it must seize opportunities in the changing international situation, develop a long-term, forward-looking plan, and actively strive for strategic initiative.

Prof. Tang concluded that national security strategy is not and cannot be an outcome designed for a complex, objective world. To develop a really sophisticated strategy, a country needs to size up the situation and conform to the historical trend, rather than imposing its own fantasy and blueprint on the objective world through national power. To successfully realize the Chinese dream, China must hone the skills of international competition, but more importantly, recognize the major trends of global political development in a timely manner. By doing so, it can inspire greater strategic wisdom and gain a keen insight into the future trends of the world. China should do what is allowed to do by the development of world history, and make the best use of the circumstances, to achieve lasting political stability in the country.

The lecture was held in a lively atmosphere. Prof. Tang’s profound and easy-to-understand analysis of national security issues was well received by the audience. In the Q&A session, the professor answered questions about how national security can have a relevance with national image and foreign strategy, which benefited the audience a lot.